中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

景丞  姜彤  王艳君  陈静  蹇东南  罗岚心  苏布达 《气象学报》2016,74(4):572-582

基于中国1960-2014年771个气象站的逐日降水资料,选取有效降水序列95百分位数作为极端降水阈值,将既定持续时间尺度和连续面积上超过阈值的降水事件定义为区域性极端降水事件。采用强度-面积-持续时间（Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD）法,根据极端降水事件空间和时间上的连续性特征,对不同持续时间的区域性极端降水事件演变趋势及暴露于极端降水事件下的人口和国内生产总值进行研究。结果表明:（1）相对强度最大的区域性极端降水事件主要集中在1960-1968、1991-1999和2006-2013年3个时段;（2）区域性极端降水事件最强中心主要分布在长江以南和东北地区,发生在北方的多为单日极端降水,南方多为持续多日的极端降水;（3）1960-2014年区域性极端降水事件影响面积有所增大,相对强度变化不明显;（4）暴露于极端降水事件影响区域内的人口和国内生产总值均呈显著增大趋势,暴露人口最多的年份在1983年,达到2408万人/d,暴露国内生产总值最多的年份在1998年,达到20亿元/d。   相似文献   

中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

钱维宏  蒋宁  杜钧 《气象》2016,42(6):674-685

近年来的研究发现,瞬变扰动天气图上的扰动场天气系统对区域暴雨的落区指示能力强于传统天气图上的总场天气系统。为供预报员在业务预报中参考,本文划分1998年发生在中国东部地区的41日次区域暴雨为7类扰动场天气系统。与区域暴雨相联系的7类异常环流型分别是:华南切变线、华南涡旋、华南倒槽、长江切变线与槽、沿江涡旋、华北涡旋和东北涡旋。无论是在对流层的垂直剖面上,还是在850 hPa水平分布上,扰动天气图上位势高度低值和风扰动辐合处并配合大的水汽扰动对应有区域暴雨,而传统天气图上的低值系统和高水汽区与暴雨之间存在位置上的偏移。由此建议,用实况大气变量和中期数值模式产品绘制扰动天气图有助于预报员确定区域暴雨落区。  相似文献   

不同气候背景下新疆冬季极端冷(暖)事件的变化特征     

陈颖  李维京  史红政  刘精 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(4):17-24

利用1961—2013年新疆89站逐日气温和NCEP再分析高度场资料,分析了不同气候背景下新疆1961年以来冬季(12月—翌年2月)出现的极端冷(暖)事件年代际变化及与其相联系的环流特征。根据对新疆冬季极端冷(暖)事件的气候背景划分,认为新疆冬季极端冷(暖)事件在不同气候背景中都有明显的不同,全疆冬季极端冷事件存在随气候背景转变而发生区域一致变化的特征,但冬季极端暖事件的变化则有南北反相的区域差异。总体而言,新疆极端冷暖事件发生的日数趋于减少,极端冷暖事件强度也具有显著减小的趋势;北疆西部和天山两侧是气候极端性变化最显著的区域。从冷暖期环流特征的差异来看,北疆型极端冷事件减少的主要原因来自于突变后极涡减弱,而南疆型极端冷(暖)事件减少(增加)则主要受欧亚范围内大片正变高区的影响。  相似文献   

1960-2014年湖南省极端气温事件变化特征分析     

朱歆炜  叶成志  彭晶晶  蔡海朝 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(2):82-89

利用1960-2014年湖南省88个地面气象站日最高和最低气温的均一化资料,运用百分位阈值法统计暖日、暖夜、冷日和冷夜数,采用线性回归、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,研究湖南省55a以来极端气温事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：(1)湖南省暖日和暖夜数呈上升趋势,其年际变化倾向率分别为0.68d.(10a)-1、2.73 d.(10a)-1,冷日和冷夜数呈下降趋势,其年际变化倾向率分别为-0.45d.(10a)-1、-2.46d.(10a)-1,夜间增暖幅度大于白天增暖幅度;(2)湖南省大部分地区的暖日、暖夜数呈上升趋势,冷日数、冷夜数呈下降趋势,其中湘北、湘南部分地区变化趋势明显;(3)暖日、暖夜、冷夜数有明显的阶段性变化,其突变检验特征较明显,暖日、暖夜分别在2008、2003年突变增加,冷夜在1986年突变减少;(4)湖南省极端气温日数在不同的时间段存在着长短不同的振荡周期。  相似文献   

LINKAGE BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND TWO TYPES OF El NI?O AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISMS     

董笛  何金海  李建平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(2):172-181

After compositing three representative ENSO indices,El Nio events have been divided into an eastern pattern(EP) and a central pattern(CP).By using EOF,correlation and composite analysis,the relationship and possible mechanisms between Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and two types of El Nio were investigated.IOD events,originating from Indo-Pacific scale air-sea interaction,are composed of two modes,which are associated with EP and CP El Ni o respectively.The IOD mode related to EP El Nio events(named as IOD1) is strongest at the depth of 50 to 150 m along the equatorial Indian Ocean.Besides,it shows a quasi-symmetric distribution,stronger in the south of the Equator.The IOD mode associated with CP El Nio(named as IOD2) has strongest signal in tropical southern Indian Ocean surface.In terms of mechanisms,before EP El Nio peaks,anomalous Walker circulation produces strong anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean,resulting in upwelling in the east,decreasing sea temperature there;a couple of anomalous anticyclones(stronger in the south) form off the Equator where warm water accumulates,and thus the IOD1 occurs.When CP El Nio develops,anomalous Walker circulation is weaker and shifts its center to the west,therefore anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean is less strong.Besides,the anticyclone south of Sumatra strengthens,and the southerlies east of it bring cold water from higher latitudes and northerlies west of it bring warm water from lower latitudes to the 15° to 25°S zone.Meanwhile,there exists strong divergence in the east and convergence in the west part of tropical southern Indian Ocean,making sea temperature fall and rise separately.Therefore,IOD2 lies farther south.  相似文献   

IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY WAVE DRAG PARAMETERIZATION     

钟水新  陈子通  王刚  蒙伟光  黄荣 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(4):522-534

The parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by sub-grid scale orography(GWDO), which has been used in the regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM), is extended to include the effect of mountain flow blocking drag(MBD). The extended scheme is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization, including a cold air outbreak over southern China and a monthly verification in February 2012. The experiment results show that the GWDO and MBD parameterization both improves the forecasting of the cold air outbreaks over southern China, as well as alleviations of system bias of GRAPES_TMM.(1) The extended scheme alleviates the strong southerly wind and high surface temperature simulation during the cold air outbreak, especially over northern Guangxi and Guangdong(NGG) province, where local high surface temperature simulation reduces nearly 5 degree.(2) The MBD parameterization improves southerly wind simulations over NGG, as well as surface temperature forecasts improvement over Guangxi, Guizhou province and southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau(YUP), and low level southerly wind simulation improvement over intertidal zone over south China.(3) The formation of MBD is mainly in the mountain area(Wuyi, Daba mountain, east of YUP) and coastal area. The MBD over plateau, which is mainly formed at the west of 105°E, is stronger and thicker than that over Nanling mountain.(4) The improvement of GWDO and MBD parameterization is stable in model physics. MBD parameterization demonstrates more overall improvements in the forecasts than GWDO, and the larger of the model forecast error is, the greater improvements of MBD contribute to. Overall, the extended GWDO scheme successfully improves the simulations of meteorological elements forecasting during cold air outbreaks.  相似文献   

Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

JOSHI Varun KUMAR Kireet 《山地科学学报》2006,3(3):228-236

Introduction The Himalaya is considered to be the youngest mountains on the earth, and is tectonically very active, and hence inherently (geologically) vulnerable to hazards. Extreme rainfall events, landslides, debris flows, torrents and flash floods due…  相似文献   

Radio wave heating of astrophysical plasmas     

R. T Gangadhara  V. Krishan 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1990,11(4):515-531

The coherent plasma process such as parametric decay instability (PDI) has been applied to a homogeneous and unmagnetized plasma. These instabilities cause anomalous absorption of strong electromagnetic radiation under specific conditions of energy and momentum conservation and thus cause anomalous heating of the plasma. The maximum plasma temperatures reached are functions of luminosity of the radio radiation and plasma parameters. We believe that these processes may be taking place in many astrophysical objects. Here, the conditions in the sources 3C 273, 3C 48 and Crab Nebula are shown to be conducive to the excitation of PDI. These processes also contribute towards the absorption of 21cm radiation  相似文献   

回归预测模型的稳健性讨论--以润扬大桥工程为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈艳国  袁宝远  赵燕容  李爱国 《四川地质学报》2006,26(2):97-100

经典的LS估计法(least squares estimation,LS estimation)是对每个观测数据都给予相同的权重,由此带来了对于异常值的处理不当,从而影响了回归模型的有效性,本文采用迭代加权最小二乘法来进行稳健估计(RobustEstimation),并基于MATLAB软件结合润扬大桥工程实例说明了此法的有效性。  相似文献   

我国东部极端降水时空分布及其概率特征   总被引：16，自引：9，他引：16  

蔡敏  丁裕国  江志红 《高原气象》2007,26(2):309-318

利用我国105°E以东地区210个测站近50年(1953—2002年)逐日降水资料,在REOF客观分区的基础上,确定各分区的极端降水最佳采样期为1~2日。进而研究了日极端降水量的气候特征。采用具有优良特性的L-矩参数估计方法对我国东部极端降水拟合Gumbel分布。结果表明,L-矩参数估计方法的拟合优度比其它方法有进一步提高,近50年来,极端降水趋势虽无明显变化,但其时空差异较大。符合Gumbel分布的极端降水重现期的地理空间分布,大致特征是,东南大、西北小,两湖盆地、黄海海湾及辽东半岛也有高值区。  相似文献